WikiThe (Open Source) World in 2020
A History Based Look into the Future
My worksheet for an accepted contribution to the FrOSCon 2008 about the topic "The Open Source World in 2020 - Ein Blick in die Glaskugel...".
Formal stuff
Abstract
The talk addresses the FrOSCon topic "The Open Source World in 2020 - Ein Blick in die Glaskugel...". To address the topic from a scientific perspective the talk was created with the mindest: "If you want to predict future you must have understood history!". In the first part of the talk looks back on the history of Free Software as the most visible and most successful example of an Open Source phenomenon. It sketches a picture starting with the earliest forms of Free Software until today. The second part of the talk explains Selbstentfaltung and openness as the basic principles of the phenomenon of Free Software and similar phenomenons. It explains how these principles constitute a new mode of production and why this mode is stronger than the capitalist one. The talk gives a short introduction to a general model of development and shows how Free Software as well as capitalism develop(ed), according to this model. The third part draws the conclusion and extrapolates the discoveries to the near future. It is outlined where further expansion and deeper embedding of those basic principles can be expected.
See http://en.wiki.oekonux.org/StefanMerten/Talks/FrOSCon2008#slides for draft slides.
Bio
Stefan Merten founded Project Oekonux in 1999. The project offers a virtual space where different people with different opinions and different methods for studying the socio-economic and socio-political forms of Free Software, and other peer production phenomenons. An important question is, whether the principles of peer production may be the foundation of a new economy, which in turn may be the base for a new society.
Stefan Merten studied computer science and works in the software field for more than 15 years. He also maintains a few small Free Software projects.
.. _Project Oekonux: http://www.oekonux.org/
Slides
The (Open Source) World in 2020
A History Based Look into the Future
| Author: | Stefan Merten |
|---|---|
| Editor: | Florian Samson |
| Organization: | Project Oekonux |
A brief look into history
Let's go 24 years back: 1984
To peek into the future it is important to understand history
Free Software very small
Hardly noticed at all
Internet did not exist in its todays form
But that is one of the main foundations for Free Software today
A few determined persons with lots of idealism
E.g. Richard M. Stallman
Just founded GNU project back then
No similar phenomenon existed
But: Basic principles were already there
What the basic principles are follows in second part
Conclusion
Very beginnings may be hard to notice
12 years later...: 1996
Free Software was pretty big
- Linux has entered the scene
- Many contributors
But it still was not very visible
Not taken serious by many
Company involvement was very small
"Open Source" was not invented
Still no similar phenomenons emerged
- Though the example started to inspire people
Important: Basic principles stayed
Conclusion
Good ideas grow because they are useful for people
Today: 2008
Free Software is here to stay
Lots of contributors
A sustainable and enduring economy exists
I.e.: A system where goods are produced and distributed
Though not an economy based on exchange...
Free Software is very visible
Using Free Software is common place and growing
Companies engage in Free Software in multiple ways
Last frontier: The desktop
But Ubuntu comes for the helping
Similar phenomenons became visible
- Wikipedia (= Free encyclopedia)
- Creative Commons licensed works
- OpenAccess (= Free Science)
- Free Music and other media (think: YouTube)
And some more...
The successful antetype of Free Software inspired these
- Based on the same basic principles
- Basic principles turned out to be successful
- Also in other fields than software
Conclusion
The basic principles are strong enough to spread out
Understanding history
First basic principle: Selbstentfaltung
What are those basic principles after all?
Selbstentfaltung (simplified):
- Having fun individually
- While maintaining a relationship to society
Fundamental motivator for humans
Complex reasoning in Critical Psychology based on evolution
Different for every individual
Good news: Every task may find an executor
Includes responsibility
Important expression: Volunteering for useful tasks
Conclusion
Something individuals and society benefit from
This combination is pretty new to mankind!
Second basic principle: Openness
Openness in two ways
- Internal openness: Everyone may contribute
- External openness: Everyone may use the results
Technology of digital copy is the historical enabler of openness
Made external and internal openness easy
"Free" in Free Software really means:
- Internal openness is a prerequisite for external openness
- And vice versa
That defines a positive feedback cycle
Conclusion
Technology may make way for new societal phenomenons
Societal phenomenons - not only technology
A new mode of production emerges
Exciting: A new mode of production emerges
- Generally called "peer production"
Mode of production describes societal facilities to produce goods
- Capitalism is a mode of production
Feudalism is the prior one
No exchange in the core of peer production
Cannot be explained by classic economic theory
- "This is doomed to fail" - they say
- But: It exists, grows and is adapted in more and more fields
Conclusion
Something wrong with classic economy ;-)
Power from new principles
- Fortitude arises from the basic principles
- Selbstentfaltung aiming at absolute quality
- If it is "your baby" you want to be proud of
- No boss stops you from doing it
- Impossible if you need to make profit
- Positive feedback cycle of openness leads to sustainable expansion
- Basic principles are stronger than those of proprietary software
Conclusion
Oekonux thesis: A new mode of production leads to a new society
Five-step model of development
Shown: Basic principles forming a new mode of production
Now: Modeling how development takes place
- Germ form = something based on novel principles
Emerging of the new
- First appearances of the germ form
- Think: Free Software in 1984
Crisis of the old
- Slump of the old forms
- Think: Crisis of classical Unices on midrange servers
Disseminating and expanding
- Germ form becomes important in the old process
- Think: Free Software today
Coexists with the old form
Not always peaceful
Key question: Does it keep its germ form features?
Here: The basic principles cannot be integrated into the old form
Achieving dominance
- The germ form becomes dominant form
- Think: Proprietary software on the decline
Restructuring society
- Restructuring of entire system process
- For software: Free Software is well in phase 3: disseminating and expanding
- For society: Peer production is in phase 1: emerging
Conclusion
There is hope! :-)
Successful germ form: 200 years back
Capitalism
- A mode of production
- Its development fits nicely into the five-step model
Emerging phase happened long ago
Earliest forms appeared during the Roman Empire
Crisis of the old happened when the feudal principles exhausted
For instance: Religious schism in the Christian church
For instance: Enlightenment and new forms of science transcended feudal principles
Disseminating and expanding started with early textile industry (weaving machines)
Capitalism has achieved dominance in the 20th century
Restructuring society is still not fully complete
Conclusion
A new mode of production starting as a germ form can take over
A peek into the future
Some words of caution
- Disseminating and expanding proceeds chaotically
- Remember: The old is fighting the new
- Particularly time lines are very hard to forecast
- Good news: Small actions can have major effects
- So you can make a difference!
- External constraints limit predictability
- In particular: Global societal developments
- In 1808 it was impossible to foresee the world of 2008
- Things which are perceived as "natural" today were unimaginable back then
Conclusion
But the forecast in question is only for 12 years ;-)
Vertical expansion
Free Software is common on the desktop
Most software will be Free
At least: That which can benefit from the Free Software principles
Governance issues of Wikipedia will be history
Either because Wikipedia found accepted ways to cope with them
Or by a more successful fork
OpenAccess has become a best practice in science
Lots of Free Music are available
Lots of [your favorite project here] available
Conclusion
Vertical expansion is quite sure
Horizontal expansion
More fields of production will follow those basic principles
The Basic principles are easily applicable to all creative processes
External openness is easier to achive for digital products
Because of technology of digital copy being lossless and cheap
Easier as you do not need an expensive infrastructure for distribution
Some guesses
- Free pharmaceutical information
- Free genetic information
- Free hardware designs picked up by industry
- Free car design picked up by industry
Conclusion
Horizontal expansion depends on many aspects
Deeper embedding
- Basic Principles to become more widely accepted
- Governments will back this increasingly
- Basic income for this type of activity
- Companies exploit these principles more and more
- See Eric v. Hippel's work on User Innovation
Conclusion
More than that will not happen within the next 12 years, supposedly
Wrap up
Summary
- Free Software took time to take off
- Basic principles: Selbstentfaltung and openness
- On this basis a new mode of production is emerging
- This new mode of production will dominate in the future
- We are witnessing the first steps into a new epoch
Conclusion
In 2020 you will know if I was right ;-)
Thank you
- More on this: http://www.oekonux.org/
- Contact: smerten@oekonux.de
- 4th Oekonux Conference
- Free Software and Beyond - The World of Peer Production
- 2009-03-27 to -29, Manchester (UK)
- Questions or other contributions?
Conclusion
Thank you for your attention
